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Bulls trample the odds

The odds were stacked against the Chicago Bulls in tonight's NBA Draft Lottery-- they stood only a 1.7% chance of landing the top pick. But in an incredible stroke of luck they watched as the other thirteen franchise's names were called for picks 14 through 2, leaving the team that not long ago won six NBA Titles (in an eight year span) with the No. 1 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft.

Now all the Bulls have left to decide is who they are going to anoint as their Michael Jordan of the future: Michael Beasley, or Derrick Rose?

NBA Draft Lottery Analysis by Brett Blevins.

1. CHICAGO BULLS (Despite having only a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, the Chicago Bulls struck gold)
Who they are looking at: Michael Beasley (6’9 Fr. SF Kansas State), Derrick Rose (6’3 Fr. PG Memphis).
Rundown: Winning the lottery puts the Bulls at the center of the Beasley vs. Rose debate. Rose is arguably the most explosive PG prospect to ever enter the draft, but ultimately the pick should be Beasley. With Kirk Hinrich and Chris Duhon splitting the point guard duties in Chicago, Beasley will fit more of a need. On a team void of a go-to scoring threat Beasley will step in and provide instant offense.

2. MIAMI HEAT (25%)
Who they are looking at: Michael Beasley (6’9 Fr. SF Kansas State), Derrick Rose (6’3 Fr. PG Memphis).
Rundown: With Beasley most likely going to the Bulls at #1, the Heat get a great consolation prize in Derrick Rose. Couple Rose with superstar Dwayne Wade and the Heat immediately have one of the most explosive backcourts in the NBA. Rose’s ability to push the basketball, added to Wade and SF Shawn Marion’s ability to fill the wings in transition, will have Miami fans forgetting all about the 15-67 campaign in 2007-2008.

3. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (13.8%)
Who they are looking at: OJ Mayo (6’4 Fr. SG USC), Brook Lopez (7’0 So. C Stanford), Danilo Gallinari (6’10 SF Italy).
Rundown: Minnesota has a lot of needs, which gives them a lot of options with the third pick. While it may be tempting to go with Lopez to allow Al Jefferson to move back to his natural PF position and compete with the size in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves should fill their scoring need on the wing first. Look for Mayo to be the pick here slightly edging Lopez.

4. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS (19.9%)
Who they are looking at: Brook Lopez (7’0 So. C Stanford), Jerryd Bayless (6’3 Fr. PG/SG Arizona), DeAndre Jordan (7’0 Fr. C Texas A&M).
Rundown: Seattle’s glaring needs are at the point guard and center positions. There will be plenty of discussion leading up to draft day concerning Lopez or Bayless. Do they feel more comfortable with Earl Watson as the table setter for their young scorers or the platoon of Collison/Wilcox/Marshall/Elson/Petro/Sene inside for one more year? Come draft day the explosiveness of Jerryd Bayless will be too much to pass up.

5. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (13.7%)
Who they are looking at: Brook Lopez (7’0 So. C Stanford), Eric Gordon (6’4 Fr. SG Indiana), Darrell Arthur (6’9 So. PF Kansas).
Rundown: Memphis will be looking at adding help inside after trading away Pau Gasol this past season. If Lopez slips past the Sonics at #4, the Grizzlies will snatch him up quickly. Look for Memphis to add a perimeter athlete with their other 1st round pick acquired from Los Angeles in the aforementioned Gasol trade.

6. NEW YORK KNICKS (7.6%)
Who they are looking at: Eric Gordon (6’4 Fr. SG Indiana), Danilo Gallinari (6’10 SF Italy), Anthony Randolph (6’10 Fr. SF LSU)
Rundown: Donnie Walsh and Mike D’Antoni will be looking for OJ Mayo to fall to them at the 6th pick. In the case that doesn’t happen, look for the decision to be made between two other freshmen: Gordon or Randolph. Randolph’s length and upside will be hard to pass up but expect them to go for a bona fide SG in Gordon.

7. L.A. CLIPPERS (7.5%)
Who they are looking at: Danilo Gallinari (6’10 SF Italy), Anthony Randolph (6’10 Fr. SF LSU)
Rundown: The Clippers are in a familiar position in the lottery for the 18th time, the most of any franchise. With the top two SG’s off the board, the Clippers will look at the top European prospect in Gallinari and the LSU Freshman Randolph. Randolph has the higher ceiling with his athletic ability and wingspan, but look for the Clippers to take the competitiveness and long-range shooting ability of Gallinari.

8. MILWAUKEE BUCKS (4.3%)
Who they are looking at: Anthony Randolph (6’10 Fr. SF LSU), DJ Augustin (5’11 So. PG Texas), Kevin Love (6’10 Fr. PF UCLA), Darrell Arthur (6’9 So. PF Kansas).
Rundown: With Mo Williams having a solid year at the point, it may be too early to select Augustin. The Bucks could take a power forward with Love and Arthur still available, and move Charlie Villaneuva to the 3…but Randolph’s upside will be too enticing to the Bucks organization. Randolph goes here at #8 if he’s still available.

9. CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (2.8%)
Who they are looking at: DJ Augustin (5’11 So. PG Texas), DeAndre Jordan (7’0 Fr. C Texas A&M), Nicolas Batum (6’8 SG/SF France)
Rundown: If Batum is the best wing available, the Bobcats will take Jordan with their first pick. He does have some motivation issues scaring some GM’s away, but he has also been compared to Dwight Howard The freshman big man possesses tremendous athleticism and size with room to add weight to his frame. His post game is not polished and still needs work, but he has tools that you simply cannot teach.

10. NEW JERSEY NETS (1.1%)
Who they are looking at: Kevin Love (6’10 Fr. PF UCLA), Darrell Arthur (6’9 So. PF Kansas).
Rundown: New Jersey’s front line could use an upgrade. With the tenth pick they may have the choice of the two best PF prospects in the draft, if they drop this far. Look for either Love or Arthur to be available at 10. If they both are the Nets will take Love. Early projections had Arthur rated higher but Love has been quietly climbing up NBA draft boards. With his new workout regimen he may not last this long, but if he does, the Nets will take the big man with the extensive skill set.

11. INDIANA PACERS (.8%)
Who are they looking at: DJ Augustin (5’11 So. PG Texas), Russell Westbrook (6’3 So. PG UCLA), Darrell Arthur (6’9 So. PF Kansas).
Rundown: The Pacers need a long term replacement for aging Jamaal Tinsley. If Westbrook falls this far it will be a tough decision between him and Augustin. Augustin fits better into Jim O’Brien’s system and should be the pick if it comes down to those two.

12. SACRAMENTO KINGS (.7%)
Who they are looking at: Russell Westbrook (6’3 So. PG UCLA), Darrell Arthur (6’9 So. PF Kansas), Donte Green (6’10 Fr. SF/PF Syracuse).
Rundown: The Maloof brothers will be ecstatic if Westbrook falls to them at #12 (he’s a no-brainer at this spot). If he doesn’t look for them to select the best power forward left on the board, Darrell Arthur.

13. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (.6%)
Who they are looking at: Nicolas Batum (6’8 SG/SF France), Donte Green (6’10 Fr. SF/PF Syracuse), Joe Alexander (6’8 Jr. SF/PF West Virginia).
Rundown: Portland would love to see either Westbrook or Augustin fall in their laps at 13, but it doesn’t look like that will happen. In that case they will be looking for help on the wing with their choices being Batum from France or the tweeners Green and Alexander. While Green possesses the size he still doesn’t have a true position, and Alexander may lack the lateral quickness to guard 3’s. This may be a toss-up, but a quick looks test and Portland takes Green.

14. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (.5%)
Who they are looking at: Joe Alexander (6’8 Jr. SF/PF West Virginia), JaVale McGee (7’0 So. C Nevada), Kosta Koufos (7’1 Fr. C Ohio St).
Rundown: The Warriors don’t have a glaring need at any position. This will allow them to draft the best available player on the board. In the scenario above Alexander is that player. McGee is still a few years away from contributing in the league and Koufos is a seven-foot jump shooter. Alexander has an NBA ready body and mid-range game, although he will need to work on his perimeter shooting to be more effective at the next level.

POSTED: 5-20-2008

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